Description

Armenia 2020 is a scenario-building initiative that focuses on the identification of alternative development models for the Republic of Armenia until the year 2020 and the elaboration of development scenarios for the country. The strength of the project is the mix of participants with diverse viewpoints. The project's aim is  to bring together committed and accomplished Armenians from Armenia and all over the world.

GOALS

• To contribute to Armenia's future strategic assumptions, development formulating through collaborative discussion teams

• To create a wider shared view of future possibilities, through public deliberation on potential long-term development models for Armenia

• To create robust decisions in the face of uncertainty - "Scenarios for Armenia 2020"

SCENARIO PLANNING: WHAT IS IT?

The process is structured in several phases. It is highly interactive, intense, and imaginative. The initial phase usually involves challenging the mental maps that shape one's perceptions, and then searching for relevant information, often from unorthodox sources. We all see certain things, and have blinders on about others. Our perceptions are shaped by our past successes and failures that may no longer be relevant. A good scenario planning project expands leaders' peripheral vision and forces them to challenge their own assumptions.

Scenario planning is intellectually rich and challenging. But it's not a dry academic exercise. It's a conversation, involving human beings who want to learn together. When it works, a group of people create something together-an analysis, a vision, a language for describing the world, a plan of action- that makes them more committed and able to work together effectively.

MOTIVATION

Motivation for this initiative rose out of the observation that in this age of ever accelerating progress and constant change, people rarely have the time to stop and think about the direction of society and their role in that process. While some individuals may contemplate the newest changes and trends for the next month, and perhaps even the next year, the vast majority does not consider the changes and trends that will emerge in the decades ahead.

METHOD

The idea of creating scenarios for businesses, corporations and countries has proved to be quite successful. Other countries such as Japan, Ireland, South African Republic and Russia have effectively undertaken similar scenario planning exercises. The organizers and the participants believe that this project addresses a genuine objective need for a serious study of Armenia's potential.